Commerce, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

163
FXUS66 KLOX 252133
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
233 PM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...25/1249 PM.

Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue to be a
staple of the forecast for most coastal and valley locations
through Monday. Persistent onshore flow will continue over the
weekend into next week across the area. Temperatures will remain
noticeably below normal through this weekend, followed by a
warming trend to near normal for urban areas as onshore flow
weakens.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...25/232 PM.

Overall, forecast guidance is in good synoptic agreement through
the short term period. The upper-level pattern features a low over
Central California that is expected to weaken Saturday. As the
ridge over the eastern CONUS retrogrades/builds, the H5 flow will
become more cyclonic over our area. Therefore, moderate onshore
gradients will persist, meanwhile northerly offshore gradients
will weaken.

Forecast-wise, fairly benign weather with cooler than normal
temperatures expected through the weekend. Concerning the Marine
Layer, it is expected to deepen a few hundred feet overnight and
will likely reach the Santa Clarita Valley. Patchy drizzle is
likely. Thereafter, H5 heights will begin to increase, compressing
the MABL (marine atmospheric boundary layer) and reducing
coverage and extent inland. Elsewhere, skies are expected to
remain mostly clear other than some high clouds.

Sundowners are expected to remain sub-advisory and confined to
the western half of the Santa Ynez Range, with a gradual decrease
in wind speeds through the weekend. The Antelope Valley and
adjacent foothills will have gusty winds each afternoon and
evening but will remain sub-advisory. Overall, no wind issues are
expected.

Below normal temperatures with minor day-to-day temperatures
fluctuations are expected through Saturday. Due to an increase in
H5 heights and less MABL influence, expect a few degrees of
warming each day through Monday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...25/223 PM.

High confidence in calm and warmer weather in the long term, with
few impacts for the general public. A warm up is expected,
however daytime highs are not favored to exceed normal by more
than a few degrees. There is little-to-no risk for extreme heat
through at least next Saturday (August 2).

Forecast models are in agreement that 500 mb heights will
gradually trend upwards into late next week, as high pressure over
the southern central US affects the region. However, a strong low
pressure system off the coast of British Columbia and associated
shortwave troughs, will dampen the westward extend of the ridge
into SoCal. Thus temperatures Tuesday through Friday will be
warmer than this week, but will remain near normal for much the
region.

Near the surface, moderate onshore gradients will continue to the
east, with weak northerly offshore gradients. This will maintain
cooling sea breezes, overnight to morning clouds for the coasts
and some valleys (although inland extend will become less
extensive). Sundowner winds across southwest Santa Barbara County
and southwest onshore breezes for the interior (especially the
Antelope Valley and foothills) will continue to be common in the
afternoons and evenings.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1711Z.

At 1629Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 4000 feet with a temperature of 17 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF and KPMD.

Moderate confidence for remaining TAFs. There is a 40% chance of
IFR CIGs at KPRB from 10Z to 16Z Sat. Flight cat changes may be
off +/- 2 hours and minimums by one category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Arrival and departure of
CIGs may be off by +/- 2 hours. Good confidence in MVFR CIGs
010-015. No significant easterly wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Arrival and departure of
CIGs may be off by +/- 2 hours. CIGs may scatter out at end of
forecast period (15Z-18Z Sat).

&&

.MARINE...25/204 PM.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, today through
Sunday, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected across
the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel during the late
afternoon and evening hours, with a 20% chance of SCA level wind
elsewhere across the Southern Inner Waters. Early next week, winds
will likely remain below SCA level, except for a 30% across the
Western Santa Barbara Channel.

For the Outer Waters, today through Saturday, SCA winds are
expected south of Point Sal, with a 30% chance of SCA level winds
north of Point Sal. Areas of SCA winds across the outer waters
will continue through as least Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, today through Tuesday,
there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Black/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Black

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox